Kudrin predicts a further depreciation of the ruble
MOSCOW. High deficit of the Russian budget is a major factor in the weakening of the ruble, its rate in 2016 may amount to 70 rubles per dollar.
Such an opinion in an interview with Tass ex-Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin.
I think that a certain high deficit is a factor in the weakening of the ruble, even if the oil price will be stable. I think about 70 (per dollar) at the same parameters on the oil price.
Alexei Kudrin, ex-Finance Minister of Russia
He added that, according to his forecast, the price of oil in the current year will be $ 35-40 per barrel.
The average dollar exchange rate since the beginning of 2016 to March 21, at around 75.48 rubles. From 4 to 21 January ruble fell against the dollar by 17.8% – up to 85.95 rubles, and then the Russian currency began to strengthen, and since then, the dollar fell against the ruble by 20.7% -. To 68.17 rubles.
As previously stated in the Ministry of Economic Development TASS, exchange rate close to the equilibrium value.
The forecast for GDP
Ex-minister also believes that the decline in GDP of Russia in 2016 at the price of oil at $ 35-40 per barrel will amount to 1.5-2%, and shows a slight increase in the range of 1% next year.
“I think that the price of oil from $ 35 to $ 40 per barrel (in 2016). I think that the fall in GDP from 1.5% to 2% at these prices, “- he said.
Responding to a question, when it can be expected to increase, he said that “in the range of 1% next year, from 0 to 1%.” At the same time Kudrin believes that the outflow of capital in 2016 will be the same as in 2015 -. About $ 50 billion, according to the Central Bank, last year the export of private capital from Russia amounted to $ 56.9 billion.
The current official forecast of Ministry of Economic Development for 2016 assumes GDP growth of 0.7% at an oil price of $ 50 per barrel. In April this year, the ministry plans to submit an updated macroeconomic forecast. Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev noted that in the baseline forecast can be laid the price of oil at $ 35 to $ 40 per barrel. However, he expects the positive dynamics of the GDP. In 2017, he expects the economy to grow by 1.5-2.5%.